Monthly Archives: April 2007

W.D. Gann: Analysis of Time!

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by

Here is a key rule from W.D. Gann’s “Method of Forecasting the Stock Market”

“Rule 2: A bull campaign runs five years; 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th month.”

Everyone today looks at price. Almost every system/strategy is based on price. Many people “swing” trade based on price equilibrium. Did you know, that futures/index/equiities all have a time element to them? Some people call is seasonality which is looks at comparing 1 year time frame to another year timeframe.

W.D. Gann was the most successful trader of all time. Why? He analyzed BOTH price and time. Rule 2 is just one of his key rules which is based on time. Gann’s work looked at more then seasonality. He analyzed the equilibrium of time.

Do you see any equilibrium of time in any of your instruments?

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to …
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Fib Ratio Table: Must see

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by
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Attached is a Fib Ratio Table. Fib Values are great to use for Entry/Stop/Profit values. Futures, Forex, Equities, and other instruments all obey the Fib. values. Most people recognize the typical Fib values of .382, .5, and .618. However, these are not the only key Fib values. Harmonic trader (see links on home page) reveals all the other key Fib values. For example, a key Fib value is .886.

One of W.D. Gann statement was that a major trend reverses once a second lower high (for bullish scenerio) occurs. This typically occurs around the .886 value. If you want to learn more, see Harmonic Trader.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this …
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“W.D. Gann: Method of Forecasting the Market”

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by

W.D. Gann wrote the following in the “Method of Forecasting the Stock Market”:

“it is always safe to buy or sell with a stop 3 points above or below the two weeks reverse move. If the market is going higher, it should continue up the third week, or down, as the case may be. The rules apply in a bear market as in a bull market.”

What does this mean? W.D. Gann basically stated that a trend will continue after a reversal of two weeks (or days depending on the time-frame) on the third week. If it doesn’t, the trend is basically violated.

A trend is established when three consecutive days of a certain bullish or bearish action takes place. You may have some “indecisive days” between the consecutive days which is ok. If a reversal occurs on a major trend, the trend will continue on the three day after the two reversal days. If it doesn’t then the trend is violated.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be …
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S&P Mini-Futures: 4-30-07

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by
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Today, the S&P mini Futures went down due to the financial market. American Express led the way. Everyone kept on saying that a correction was around the corner. As a result, the first sign of some bad news, this market went down without any hestitation. However, notice the volume on the chart. It was the same as Friday which is not too high. A lot of people have held their positions. We now have two days of bearish movement. If tomorrow closes as a bearish day then most likely our bullish trend is now in a correction mode. Remember, Gann mentioned that it takes three same days for a trend to develope. Even with the bearish move today, we came within 3 pts of 1500. Only 3pts! Do you think this market wants the 1500? I think so.

Here is the chart:

Here is the Vix chart for 2006. Notice that the Monday after the weekend, the VIX went up drastically. The VIX then went down until 5/5. After that point, it starts to move upward.

Here is the VIX chart today. As usually, price “respected” the Kijun Sen and bounced back towards it. This time overshooting it. …
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GRA – 4/30/07: Update

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by
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GRA has moved down as we shown in the 4/22/07 blog. We were hoping it would have reached the .618 retracement by 4/30 at 25.08 but it didn’t. We closed at 26.60 today. According to Market Timers, GRA is suppose to start making a bullish seasonal move 4/30-5/2. Even though the seasonals say a bullish trend is starting, I still think there is some more bearish action in this stock. Price just crossed the Kijun Sen indicating the possible end of the bullish sentiment. Also, the 5,35 Osc is still not at zero. A good EW4 typically has the Osc going to zero so we may still have some bearish movement. Furthermore, there was a higher bearish volume today.

Therefore, I am going to stay in my trade but use the Kijun Sen as my Stop now. This value will be 27.10.

Below is the chart:

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with …
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Dow: Where is it going?

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by
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My trading partner, Jim N, sent me a nice chart on the Dow last Friday.

It is trying to go to 13302 which is the Fib value of 361.8%.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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EURCAD 4-30-07: Update

Posted on April 30th, 2007 by
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EURCAD is looking good. We have passed our S1 area and moving to the second Support area. The Kijun Sen is looking very “healthy” and we are adjusting our Stop based on the Kijun Sen.

Here is the chart

ts.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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CHFUSD 4-27-07: Trade Setup

Posted on April 27th, 2007 by
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CHFUSD is setting up right now. Sentiment is bearish. We are waiting for an entry point now. Here are the indicators:

Chikou Span: Bearish and not running into price soon. Kumo Price: Price below Kumo cloud. Kiju Sen/Tenkan Cross: Bearish Kumo Future: Fresh Bearish Kijun Sen: Flat and below Kumo. This will cause some consolidation. Entry will be key.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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BE CAREFUL: What is happending with the Vix? 4-26-07

Posted on April 26th, 2007 by
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The VIX index represents the volatility in the market. Typically, the VIX and the Equity market has an inverse relationship. As the markets go up, the VIX goes down and vice versa. However, as the Dow reached 13k and the S&P is reaching the 2000 high of 1500, the VIX is increasing. This is a sign to be very CAREFUL. This is the second blog entry in the last couple of days warning people to be very careful due to a market correction “around the corner”.

Our trading strategies is based on equilibrium. Right now, the VIX and the Equity market are not in equilibrium. Something will have to change very soon in order to reach this equilibrium. Either the market will correct so the VIX represents the volatility in the market or the VIX goes down as the markets move up.

Please see chart below.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade …
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sun 4-26-07: Trade for tomorrow

Posted on April 26th, 2007 by
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Sun has been going up for a long time.

The seasonal chart shows tomorrow is the date this stock ends it bullish trend and go bearish.

Here is the HA charts:

Here is the Esignal chart. The Kijun is still bullish. However, the Kijun Sen and the Tijen Sen looks to be crossing soon. You can enter now based on seasonal or wait for the crossover. Before the equity makes a drastic move down, I probably will consolidate. Tomorrow will tell everything.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on …
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