Monthly Archives: June 2007

06-28-07: Market Fundamental Analysis: What is happening?

Posted on June 28th, 2007 by

This is the first blog entry for the fundamental analysis.   I am definitely not the expect in this area.   However, my frien Eric is great at it.    Yesterday, I asked him what he thought was going on in the market.   Here is what he wrote

You’re right, the past two (at least) releases of the Fed statement served as a trigger, firing the markets up.  That could happen Thursday at 2:15, but Wednesday’s move stole some of that thunder.  Wednesday’s action was in part due to a major sell-off in the futures after the close of the cash index Tuesday. Tuesday’s S&P 500 went out 4.85 down for the day, but the futures closing just 15 minutes later were down 15.8.  It put in a bottom and set the stage for the reversal, and made for an interesting open Wednesday.

The last two days of June tend to be strong in the S&P 500, with quarter end window dressing, on top of the last good month for the Turn-of-the-Month (TotM) effect until November. http://www.cxoadvisory.com/blog/internal/blog8-24-06/ , however, the first trading day of July is the third weakest of the 12 months, according to Trader’s Almanac.

Tuesday is a short trading day, Wednesday we’re closed and day …
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Futures/Index/Ichimoku: S&P Mini-Futures/SPX: 6-28-07: Trade Update

Posted on June 28th, 2007 by
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Our blog on the VIX was “spot on the dot”. Our bullish positions are doing really good. I expected the big move to occur tomorrow (Thursday). The FOMC announcement is tomorrow. Also, seasonal patterns show that the Thursday before the end of June is typically a very bullish day. Today’s big move up is very concerning. What caused this huge move? What caused the VIX to move 17% in one day?

Let’s look at the charts. We start by looking at the SPX chart. Price closed right at our Gann line (blue). Our Ichimoku indicators still indicate a bearish sentiment but it is very weak now. Soo weak, it can change in one day. If we close positive tomorrow then a bullish trend may develope for a couple of days.

Let’s look at the S&P mini-futures. This chart was very interesting. The futures and the SPX cash index deviated a lot today. The futures took off and closed very high were as the SPX cash index closed higher but not the same percentage as the futures. This is very concerning. A deviation between the future and the cash index should not be this big. If you look at …
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Ichimoku/Volatilty: VIX, 6-27-07: Trade Analysis

Posted on June 26th, 2007 by
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We have had 5 straight down days in the SPX. We have moved from 1533 to 1492 in 5 days!  Today, we reached exactly our S1 target.

Let’s look at the VIX which is good indicator of the markets. Sometimes it does get “skewed” to a point you can’t use it but in general, it is a good indicator for the market.

Below is the VIX chart in Harmonic Analyzer. Notice, we are in a crowd of Fib values. In fact, we reached one exactly today. Therefore, the VIX should be close to reaching a top. All the possible reverse Fib values are shown.

Let’s look at the charts now. They are shown below. We have made a higher high VIX from the 6/7 value. Notice, the Oscillator is higher then the Oscillator on 6/7. This means there is a stronger bullish momentum for the VIX (bearish for the market). The Stoch. indicator is also exactly like 6/7 which is interesting. Also, notice the VIX at the end of the month typically goes up and then goes down the last day of the month or the first couple of days of the next month. This means CASH is entering the …
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Ichimoku/Stock: GOOG, 6-26-07: Trade Setup

Posted on June 26th, 2007 by
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There is a nice trade setup for GOOG.

Let’s look at the chart. If you look at the price pattern, it looks like we on the last of the EW5 leg. The buying momentum is slowing down too according to our Oscillator. We made a higher high without the Osc making a higher high. Also, the Kijun Sen (green) is indicating we are in a consolidation mode. Price is far away from the Tenken Sen(red) and the Kijun Sen(green) so it will have to equalize soon. The Kijun Sen is at the 500 price market..

Now, how should we trade what we just analyzed. The best low risk strategy is a directional butterfly. I am going to choose the “mouth” of the butterfly right at 500.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation …
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Futures/Index/Ichimoku: S&P Mini-Futures/SPX: 6-26-07: Trade Analysis

Posted on June 26th, 2007 by
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We reached our S1 level and bounced right off it. We have adjust our price target for the SPX now to 1482.81 for this week. If price reaches 1482.81, we will definite go long using a couple of points below S3 as our stop.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Futures/Commodity/Ichimoku: Wheat Future: 6-26-07: Trade Update

Posted on June 26th, 2007 by
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Chop, Chop, Chop is the word for the wheat futures.

Our indicators show we are in a consolidation mode. However, we are still bullish until the indicators tell us otherwise.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Futures/Index/Ichimoku: S&P Mini-Futures/SPX: 6-24-07: Trade Analysis

Posted on June 25th, 2007 by
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Last week was a very interesting week especially Friday. We had two distribution days for the SPX/SPY which really has not occurred for a long time. If you look at the trend, we have had a total of 7 down days with some minor pull backs.

Our seasoanal (not predictive of future results) chart shows us that we are in a bearish mode until 6/30 which is this Sat. Remember, it is always +-3 days. This would put us around Wed/Thursday being a possible reverse date. This is very interesting because the Fed is having there big meeting this Thursday which will definitely move the markets.

Let’s analyze the SPX on our charts. The light blue lines represent Gann lines. The Red lines represent the Support values and the dark blue line represents the resistance line. What was interesting in drawing the Gann lines is that a possible reversal date was also 6/30 which matched our seasonal charts. Based on the Gann lines and the support lines, I have drawn the possible SPX price target where a reversal could take place. This value was 1472.81. Even though, I am showing a bearish price target, price could move up to test …
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How to trade with Seasonals training: July 21-22, 2007: Atlanta, GA

Posted on June 25th, 2007 by

Click here for further information

http://www.eiicapital.com/training/training_07_21_07.html

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Futures/Index/Ichimoku: Dow Mini-Futures/DJX: 6-21-07: Trade Setup

Posted on June 21st, 2007 by
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Just like the SPX, the DJX is at a critical junction. If you are going to enter please use an appropiate stop.

The chart was provided by my friend Jim

.

134.20 is the entry

For EDUCATIONAL USE. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Futures/Index/Ichimoku: S&P Mini-Futures/SPY: 6-21-07: Trade Setup

Posted on June 21st, 2007 by
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Look at the chart below. We are approaching our yellow Gann line again. This is a possible buying opportunity. If you decide to buy here use 1499 as your stop if we close below the Gann line today. The entry is 1508.00

For EDUCATIONAL USE. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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