Monthly Archives: March 2008

Is the Commodity Run Over?

Posted on March 20th, 2008 by
Is the Commodity Run Over?

In the last couple of days, Commodities have sold off drastically. So drastic that everyone thinks that the Commodity “Bull” run is over. Is it really over? Instead of listening to all the analysts, let’s see what the charts are telling us. We will us the Ichimoku Trend based system along with Volume to analyze various commodities.

The first commodity we will look at is Gold, everyone’s favorite. As everyone knows, Gold hit an all-time high this week. For Gold, we will look at the E-Mini Gold Future contracts. Below is a weekly chart for the E-Mini-Gold Contracts. The charts has been compressed so you can see where the Gold bullish run really started (7/22/05). Notice the chart pattern. Initially, it started to move higher with a slow increase in volume. In the middle of 2006 to middle of 2007, it basically consolidated and then started to take off again. This week, Gold has moved down 11.92% from the all time high of 1033. The volume so far is 51,791. This is not the highest volume since 2005. Most analysts are saying that everyone is “rotating” out of commodities. From the volume, it seems like the down movement is profit …
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Soy Bean Oil / Futures : Trade Up

Posted on March 13th, 2008 by
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SoyBean Oil has made a nice bullish trend. The pull back has been taking place for the last couple of days. It looks like it may be setting up to continue the bullish trend.

Below is the chart with Entry, Stop, and Price targets.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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CADJPY / Ichimoku / Forex: Trade Setup

Posted on March 11th, 2008 by
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Based on seasonal charts and technical charts, we are looking for a bullish play on CADJPY. Due to the huge volatility in the market, we are going to keep a tight stop. Below is the chart with the entry information.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Analysis / Dow / Index / Future: History analysis

Posted on March 6th, 2008 by
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The market is very interesting right now with people citing we are already in a recession. Some people are stating that we have already formed the “bottom” and the market is just consolidating and eventually will go up. Which statement is true if any? Let’s analyze the charts to see if any of these statements are true.

For the analysis, we first need to determine roughly where possible the bearish trend may end. In order to do this, we are going to look at the past to determine past percentage movements in price. History typically repeats itself.

Below is the weekly chart for $INDU for early 2003 when the market formed the “bottom”. On 3/14/2003, the market started to move up and continued until 2/13/04. The percentage movement for this bullish movement after reaching the bottom was roughly 44.9% in 48 weeks.

Now, we are going to analyze what is happening to the market today. First, we have to make an assumption that the market top for $Indu was reached on 10/12/2007. With this assumption, we calculate the percentage movement for price to the lowest price after 10/12/2007. The lowest price was reached on 1/25/2008. This is a 18% …
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Dow / Futures / Index / Ichimoku : Trade Exit

Posted on March 6th, 2008 by

For our swing trade, we got close to reaching the second support level. Price went to 12160 and the second support level was 12156. The trade was exit a little above the first support level at 12182.

We will look for another swing trade or a possible long term trend.

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Do not trade with money you can not afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information provide d on the Blog is for educational purpose .


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Dow / Futures / Index / Ichimoku : Trade Setup

Posted on March 5th, 2008 by
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I am finally back from vacation. Great to be back. It has been interesting to see the charts.

Let’s look at the daily chart on the Mini-Dow futures. On Jan 21, the futures entered a trading range. This is shown in the graph below. Since we are in a trading range, there is no real long term trade. As a result, we are going to look for a quick swing trade. Remember, the daily shows the charts are in a bearish sentiment. This sentiment can only change if price suddenly closes above 12406. Therefore, we will look for a bearish swing trade.

Below is the 60 minute chart for the mini-Dow futures. The yellow line outlines the entry for a bearish swing trade and the red line outlines the stop for the trade. We are keeping our stops tight due to the volatility in the market but no too tight where we can get stopped out of the trade easily. The white lines indicates possible price targets

For EDUCATIONAL USE.    Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You …
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