Monthly Archives: May 2008

5/23/08 Ichimoku/SPX/DJX : Market Update

Posted on May 23rd, 2008 by
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 Below is the Percentage change chart for all three markets:  SPX, DJX, NDX.      On the chart, we have drawn a horizontal line at the last low “pivot” point.   Notice, the SPX and NDX are close to touching it but the Dow has already gone past this mark.   It is moving to the next low “pivot” point.    This chart shows the Dow is more bearish at this point then the other two markets.

Let’s analyze the weekly charts for both the Dow and the SPX to see what is happening long term.   Below is the weekly chart for both the SPX and the Dow.   For both weekly charts, price needed to “equalize” last week since it had moved up too fast in a too short of a time.   This week, price price equalized to a point where the tenkan/kijun sen are now close to price.    Both charts still show that the weekly chart pattern is bearish.   However, it is weakening with time.      Since the charts are weakening, there really is NO trend at this time for either the SPX and the DJX for a long term basis. One …
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5/19/08 SPX/DJX/Future/Ichimoku: Bullish or Bearish?

Posted on May 19th, 2008 by
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 The markets have been very interesting lately.    With little volume, the market has been moving up.

Below is a percentage based chart of the SPX,NDX, and the DJX.    Ignore the percentage values and just observe the chart formation.    The chart formation shows that when the markets have been going up, the SPX has been leading.   When the markets have been going bearish, the NDX/DJX have been leading the way.   However, the SPX drops at a higher percentage then the Dow during the down move.

Below are the weekly chart for the Dow and the SPX.    For both indexes, price is below the kumo cloud indicating the longer term sentiment as being bearish.   However, last week’s price action caused the Tenkan Sen(red) to move toward the Kijun Sen(green) causing a bullish movement to occur between the Tenkan/Kijun Sen relationship.    The other indicators are moving towards a bullish sentiment too.      Therefore, we are current bearish but the indicators are moving to a bullish sentiment.   With a little pull back where price and Tenkan Sen meet up, a long term bullish movement COULD possible take place.   Only time will tell us …
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Ichimoku / Dow / S&P / Futures / Index: Bullish or Bearish?

Posted on May 1st, 2008 by
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The Fed announced yesterday another .25 point cut.    Initially, the markets went up before the announcement and towards the end of the day, they close a little higher compared to the inter-day high.

Let’s analyze the markets based on a technical view.   Below is a percentage change chart for the Dow, NASDAQ, and the S&P. As you can see from the chart, the Dow has been “leading” the other two markets.   Therefore, we are going to analyze the Dow further to see if we are in a bullish or bearish sentiment.

In order to determine the sentiment of the Dow, we are going to look at the weekly chart first.    We are doing that because we want to get a “long term” view of the market especially with all the volatility we have had this year.     Below is the weekly chart for the Dow.     From the chart, you can see that price is still below the Kumo Cloud which indicates that the weekly timeframe for the Dow is in a bearish sentiment.   All the other Ichimoku indicators are still bearish too so there is no really sign on us moving to a bullish sentiment as of …
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