Monthly Archives: June 2016

Check this out, UK Stock Market back to Levels Before BREXIT

Posted on June 29th, 2016 by
2016-06-29_uK_d

Check this out, UK Stock Market back to Levels Before BREXIT   Ever feel like the stock market is one big game?    If not,,,,check this out.

UK decided to leave the European Union.    News is reporting that the politicians that were wanting UK to leave are “back tracking”.    They say UK is in one big mess.   If this is the case, why is the UK stock market going up and getting back to the levels it started?

Here is the daily chart of UK $FTSE100 chart provided by eSignal. This is a current chart.   We are almost back to 6339!

 

Here is the weekly chart.  Notice, we held the weekly support at 5962 and now we are back to testing the high of the weekly consolidation pattern of 6339.

If you didn’t turn on the news or didn’t know about BREXIT, did it really occur?

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

EDUCATIONAL USE. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable …
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US Stock Market approaching critical resistance. Do or Die?

Posted on June 29th, 2016 by
2016-06-29_vix_w

US Stock Market approaching critical resistance.  Do or Die? BREXIT caused a lot of volatility on all instruments types and caused the US stock markets to go down drastically.  Since yesterday, the markets are going higher.   What does this mean?   Are we going back to retest the high again?    Is this a fake movement up to setup for a big bearish movement?     How far will it go up?   These are just some of the questions that people are asking about around the world.    So let’s address them all by analyzing the charts.

When the markets were going up, we relied on the $VIX and the $TF Russell futures.   When the markets were going down, we relied on the $VIX and the $ES E-Mini SP500 futures.     These correlations have been working and we will continue to use them until they don’t.    Let’s look at the charts for each instruments to determine where we are now and where we are going.

First, let’s analyze the $VIX, the Volatility Index.   It is the inverse relationship to the US stock markets.  In another words, if the $VIX goes down, the markets go …
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Pairing CVX and XOM

Posted on June 28th, 2016 by
cvx-xom 6-28-2016

CVX reached a major Monthly Resistance in the past week and today saw major volume in sold shares and bought Puts which drew my attention. CVX Option volatility is still above average so the best play would be buying Vertical Put Spreads. Buying the September 16 95/92.5 Spread for $0.58 yields a greater than 3:1 Reward/Risk if it reaches max profit. I’m aiming for a 8.5% bearish move with earnings one month away to act as a catalyst which is reasonable.

The best company to hedge the short trade with in terms of industry and market cap is XOM. For the hedge to match the risk and movement I went with the October 16 95/97.5 Call Spread for $0.60. I’m aiming for a 8.5% bullish move and this stock also has earnings on the same date a month away.

 


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NZDCAD, NZDUSD, USDJPY, NZDJPY, NZDCHF, GBPCAD, EURAUD, AUDNZD, CADCHF, EURCHF, Forex / Currency 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending July 1

Posted on June 27th, 2016 by
NZDCAD 6X ALERT

NZDCAD Forex / Currency 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending July 1.  On June 26th, we received an 6 and also a 7 time frame Ichimoku Multiple time frame email alert at www.ichimokutrade.com.   Here is the email alert

Based on the 3 Step Trading Plan published earlier. (https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/?p=10431), we looked at at a pull back trade on a 2h time frame provided by ThinkorSwim.   Here is the chart setup:

NZDUSD: Already hit the pull back. Will watch for weakness to lead to a reversal or look for the first pull back if it breaks out.

Check out the MTF alert I got with the Heat map alert

signal from www.Alerttrades.com

NZDUSD Forex / Currency 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending July 1.  On June 26th, we received an 6 and also a 7 time frame Ichimoku Multiple time frame email alert at www.ichimokutrade.com.   Here is the email alert

Based on the 3 Step Trading Plan published earlier. (https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/?p=10431), we looked at at a pull back trade on a 2h time frame provided by ThinkorSwim.   Here is the chart setup:

NZDUSD already pulled back. I will watch for weakness …
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Bitcoin Holds 672 Daily Resistance

Posted on June 27th, 2016 by
bitcoin daily 6-27-2016

Bitcoin held 672 Daily Resistance and may now consolidate over the next two weeks between the Resistance and the Weekly Support level. While price action is still bullish for the long term it has failed a fast retest of the high indicating that the bullish trend we’ve seen since March is now over and a major pullback is underway. While Hodlers may still be shooting for the Moon they are going to have to wait at least 1-2 months for price to have a chance of recovering to restest the major high.

Price still needs to clear either of these levels to determine long term sentiment. At the moment the best trades will be short term bearish back down to the Weekly support level. The aggressive traders may try to buy more at the next test of 571 Support but with strict trading discipline to get out should it fail to Hodl.

Interestingly enough the chart timings are very close to “The Halvening” event which could act as a catalyst either way. Refer back to my post on Bitcoin halvenings where I talked about how the first “Quarter” of time between and following halvening events foreshadow the trajectory of …
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WHR, MCD: SP500 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending June 17

Posted on June 26th, 2016 by
2206_6TF_WHR_PB_Alert

WHR SP500 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending June 24.  On June 22, we received a 6 time frame Ichimoku Multiple time frame email alert at www.ichimokutrade.com.   Here is the email alert:

Based on the 3 Step Trading Plan published earlier. (https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/?p=10431), we looked at a Bullish Pullback Trade on a 30m time frame provided by eSignal.   Here is the chart setup:

WHR has MTF at  2hr, 1hr, 30m and 10m time frames. We will need to set the target at 3:1 reward risk ratio.  Entry is 178.05, Initial stop is 177.44. However, our next resistance that is the target is at 180.41, which is a 3:1. The Pull back was  triggered on June 22 at 1300hrs and it reached our target on June 23 at 0930hrs.

 

MCD SP500 6 Timeframe Ichimoku Email Alert for the week ending June 24.  On June 23, we received a 6 time frame Ichimoku Multiple time frame email alert at www.ichimokutrade.com.   Here is the email alert:

Based on the 3 Step Trading Plan published earlier. (https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/?p=10431), we looked at a Bearish Breakout Trade on a 60m time frame provided by eSignal.   Here is the chart setup:

 

We will need to set the …
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Q2CY2016 Spain Stock Market Executive Summary

Posted on June 26th, 2016 by
2016-06-26_spain_monthly

Q2CY2016 Spain Stock Market Executive Summary.   In the last update, we made this comment  “the market is consolidating but in danger of starting a major bearish trend”.

Figure 1 shows the eSignal Monthly Ichimoku chart for the Spain Stock Composite $IBC-MAC.   In 2015, the Spain stock market tried to start a bullish trend but failed.  Now, the market is in danger of starting a major trend.    The support at 8479 WAS controlling the bearish trend.  It was broken with the BREXIT.

Figure 1:  eSignal Ichimoku Monthly chart of Spain Stock market 

Figure 2 shows the eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart for the Spain Stock market.  The bearish trend can easily been seen on the weekly time frame.    For the last couple of months, we have been consolidating in a bearish mode.    The 8479 was the bottom of the consolidation pattern.

Now, we broke it, we are the major support of 7752 and in danger of breaking that.    If that happens the bearish trend is going to continue to go down.

Figure 2:  eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of Spain Stock market 

 Figure 3 shows the Daily time frame for the Spain …
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Q2CY2016 Executive Summary of Greece Stock Market

Posted on June 26th, 2016 by
2016-06-26_greece_weekly

End of Q2CY2016 Executive Summary of Greece Stock Market. On our last update for the Greece stock market, things were looking good for the stock market.    Price was going higher and had a chance to reach the next major resistance at 1072 as long as support at 879 held.

Figure 1 shows the eSignal Weekly Ichimoku chart for the Greece Athens Stock Composite $SAGD-ATH.

Price tried to get to the bottom of the cloud at 1004 without pulling back but didn’t succeed.   On the pull back, the support at 879 needed in order to hold for price to go reach the resistance at 1177.89.    This didn’t happened!

Instead, price broke the support and it is at a very critical support of 803.00.    If this support is broken, the probabilities will be high for the bearish trend to continue without a major pull back.   The next major support before retesting the 600 level will be 747.00.

Figure 1:  eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of Greece Stock market 

 Figure 2 shows the eSignal Ichimoku Daily chart for the Greece Stock market.   The daily chart is very “ugly”.    You can see the nice bullish trend …
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OKCoin Quarterly Futures Leading Spot Price

Posted on June 25th, 2016 by
BTCUSD compared to OKCoin Quarterly Futures

During this recent phase of volatility in the Bitcoin market I’ve begun experimenting with the futures at OKCoin. While I’m told most true Mooninites and Hodlers use full 20x leverage I’ve found no reason to go beyond 10x. It is still an attractive prospect to those that want to put entire accounts on the line to “win the lottery.”

I wanted to see what I could learn about the differences between the prices of the two at any give time. Through observation I gathered a few bits of information:

1. Quarterly futures almost always trade at a premium against spot price. Typically 2.5% 2. Observation 1 becomes untrue in bearish conditions reaching parity and temporarily dipping below by < 0.5%. 3. Price movements are exaggerated in futures ; bullish and bearish . 4. Futures price movements are more correlated to BTCCNY than BTCUSD . 5. Futures price sometimes leads spot price.

From these observations I thought about two trading strategies. The first would deal with arbitrage in calculating the mean differential and using automated trading to take advantage of deviations in the premium. This would have to be automated and I am certain someone else already has advanced bots doing the work …
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BREXIT Greed destroys a lot of traders, Don’t panic and print money!

Posted on June 24th, 2016 by
2016-06-23_gbpusd_d

BREXIT Greed destroys a lot of traders, Don’t panic and print money!.   Before the British Veto, the market started to price in that they weren’t going to leave the European Union.  It was seen on the charts and also on TV with the polls.     We listen to actions people take which are seen on the charts so we will focus on that.

On the charts, it was clearly seen that.   Below is the daily chart of the $GBPUSD spot currency provided by eSignal. On June 14, price reached the support of 1.4099 which was the bottom of the consolidation pattern.   After that, price bounced off this top, went to the top of the consolidation pattern and broke it!   Why did it break it!  Speculation is the answer.   People were speculating that UK was not going to leave the European Union and not going to exit.   Therefore, it would go higher along with all the Global markets.

 

Below is the daily chart of the UK Stock market, the $FTSE.   The June 15, it hit the major weekly support of 5952.13.   After a couple of days, price retraced all the …
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