Author Archives: Manesh Patel

The Battle: $Bitcoin vs $iMTF®

Posted on December 10th, 2017 by

The Battle: Bitcoin vs iMTF.    Bitcoin has corned the media market.  Everyone around the world has been talking about it.    In the month of December, I have been traveling the world.   Every country I go, Bitcoin is the major talk on the stock market channels.

With the crazy returns, everyone is trying to get involved.   Non-professional and professional traders too!    This reminds me all the “bubble” we have experience in history.     When everyone is buying, there are no sellers so the price just keeps going and higher until the “bubble” busts.

Remember the recent “Gold” Bubble?

The magical question everyone is asking how do you trade it.    No one knows when this “bubble” will end.   No one knows how far it will go.    Therefore, you have to trade it in a very low risk manner.

This is our iMTF® technology is very useful.   It analyzes multiple time frames to find the major support/resistance.

In order to trade $Bitcoin, you have to trade pull back with multiple time frame supports.     With the instrument going higher, there are not many opportunities.    However, when the opportunity does come, it is low risk and high reward.

Here is the current daily chart.    On November 29, 2017, $Bitcoin dropped and our price alerts got triggered.    We had a price alert at 8587.00.    This was the last multiple time frame support that has been seen on the daily timeframe.

 

After that pull back to that level, price has gotten all the way to 19642.  This is 130% increase in 9 days.

This is a low risk, high reward trade.   Once you enter the trade, you use a good “trailing” stop so you do not give up your profits and do not lose!

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

$WMT vs $SPY $Pairs Trade

Posted on December 10th, 2017 by

$WMT Walmart vs $SPY SP500 ETF $Pairs Trade.  One of the hidden strategies most people don’t talk about is “pairs trading”.   Some people talk about it but still the concept is not done right.   I learned this powerful strategy in the institutional world.

What is pairs trading?   Pairs trading is a hedge based strategy.    The goal is to trade one instrument and hedge with another instrument.    For example, if you like to trade Apple stock, you buy that instrument.   To hedge it, you should sell their major competitor.    As long as you limit your risk and make sure you get a 3:1 ratio, you will make money.   This strategy is executed every quarter so it starts to create a “residual” income every quarter.

The key is to make sure at least one of the instruments move in your direction.  To do this, we use technical analysis to determine the following:

  • Which/When instrument to buy
  • Which/When instrument to sell

This month, we are looking at $WMT vs $SPY.

Below is the weekly chart.   The vhart broke out bullish long term.   It is now going through a pull back.   We are looking to setup a bullish pull back trade on the weekly time frame.

 

Update $JPM vs $COF:

The trade never triggered so we canceled it.   Below is the current 240m chart.

 

Update $CAR vs $HTZ:

Below is the current monthly chart.   The trade has triggered and we are at a minor resistance now.   If this resistance break, we will get to the 3:1 reward/risk.

 

 

 

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

$NIFTY $SENSEX December Monthly iMTF™ Market Update

Posted on December 10th, 2017 by

$NIFTY $SENSEX November Monthly iMTF™ Market Update. The Indian stock market continues to make new high’s.  In November, we made another high too.

Note:  All charts are provided by TradingView for this article

Below is the monthly chart.

Since Feb 2004, the India stock market has been in a long term bullish trend.   There was a medium pullback in 2016 but the market has yet to experience a major pull back.

Here is the current monthly chart.     Since the market has been making all-time new high, we have to use $Fibonacci extensions for resistances.    The next major resistance is 10528 with a support 9733.    In November, we got close to reaching this value but missed it by a couple of points.    The lower time frames will tell us if we still have a possibilty of reaching it.

 

 

Below is the weekly chart.  The weekly is strong and shows no signs of weakness at all right now.  There is a multiple time frame support 9970.00.  As long as this support holds, no major pullback in regards to long term will occur.

Below is the daily chart.  It shows a multiple time frame resistance at 10378.

 

In conclusion, the Indian remains in a strong bullish trend short and long term.    If the multiple frame support at 9970, then the market will undergo a short term pull back.    If the multiple time resistance at 10378 breaks, the market will proceed to next major resistance making new high again.

Trade Opportunities

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bullish.

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bearish.

With the Indian market making new high, it is very hard to find a good bullish trade with a good reward/risk.   The reason is you do not know if the market will keep on making new high.   Therefore, you have to minimize your risk and trade pull back or breakout on lower time frames.

We are approaching the end of the year.   One of the things we like to do is example instruments that did not do good this year.    These companies could possible recover next year and have a good reward/risk in the process.

In looking at the bearish list above, lets examine $Drreddy.eq-nse.   Below is the quarterly chart.  We are examining quarterly because the monthly has been registered to be bearish.   We need to find the long term support which is the higher time frame.

The chart is bullish very long term.   It is trying to go through a major pull back which is why all the lower time frames are bearish.  The major support at 1906 is holding.    This is the 61.8% Fibonacci many traders are paying attention too.

The resistance holding this bearish trend is 2471.00.

Here is the monthly chart.  The bearish setup has triggered but no follow up has occurred.    As long as the resistance holds, the monthly still can go bearish.

In conclusion, we will be looking for the resistance to possible break in 2018.   If so, this can be a good bullish trade on lower time frames with a good reward/risk.

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

Most Power Trading Tool at Your Finger Tips, Use and Abuse it!

Posted on November 11th, 2017 by

 

Most Power Trading Tool at Your Finger Tips, Use and Abuse it!   What is this Tool?   Statistics!   Trading is all about probabilities!   Technical analysis is about past patterns repeating themselves over and over!  This is statistics!     The best simple statistics tool that is available in the market is Seasonality.

Why?   It tells you from a certain start date to a certain end date, what the statistics was for an instrument.     This is very powerful and simple!     So why does not everyone use it all the time to give them the edge?

There are a number of reasons.   Here is what our experience has told us:

  1.  Seasonality has become a marketing word to promote educational material.  This is fine as long as the education is from real traders.   Trader using the tool daily for any instrument and time frame.  When we say any instrument, it should be any instrument in the world!   This is currencies, futures, USA stocks, Europe Stocks, Asia stocks, etc.   If it is only for one instrument class then the strategy could be “curve fitting” which eventually not work when markets change.
  2. Huge cost.   Seasonality software can have a huge price tag.    Only for the software purchase but also for the monthly data feed.
  3.  Most of the formula for seasonality just looks at percentage move year by year.  It does not account for volatility.

DO NOT WORRY.   We are real traders and the seasonality we are going to show you how to use is Free and covers ALL Global instruments.

For our online extensive tutorial, you can go here:   http://www.imtftrade.com/course-tutorial-2-2/

Let’s take some trades that have been taken and step you through the thought process of the trade.  We are going to combine the seasonality with our IMTF technology:

 

DLTR Trade

Here is the seasonality for Dollar tree provide for free from www.alerttrades.com.   You can access the software through a mobile too!  The statistics show that DLTR for the month of November has a 86% probability of going bullish with an average move of 9.5%.    Not only that, the price action movement that occurs in the month of November is 21% of the entire year.

Anything over 10% tells you it is a trending month.     What good is a 86% probability if it only moves 0.05%.     That winning but not making money!   That is losing in theory!

Here is the 60m chart.   As traders, we notice that seasonality either occurs in the first 15 day or second 15 days when you look at a monthly seasonality.    See that is the traders in us!

We zoom down to a 60m because that is the bridge between the day traders and the swing traders.   Trading a 60m and 240m gives a trader an edge.  Did you know that?

WHat we look for in a chart.   First, we look for a shaded area.   A green indicates a bullish setup.   A red indicates a bearish setup.     Second, we look for black cross for support or resistance.   This allows pull back trades to keep our risk low compared to breakout trades.

In this chart, we got the green and black crosses,  As a result, we setup for a pull back bullish trade with over a 4:1 reward/risk.

Simple as counting 1-2-3!

Want another one!   Here is HII.  It has a 90% probability of moving 9.4% with 20% of price action occurring in November.

Here is the 120m chart.  We looked at the 60m chart but the reward/risk was not good.  Therefore, we had to go to higher time frame to get a bigger risk and bigger reward.     This was a potential of 3:1 but gave us a lot more due to earnings.

 

Here is one of the best ones.  It is ttwo.   It had a 76% probability of moving 5.8% with 10% of the price action in the year occurring in the month of November.

With this trade, it did not have a setup.   However, it was a major multiple support in the past.   Below is the weekly chart where you can see that support clearly.

Here is the daily time frame:

 

Not convinced this is useful tool for real traders.   Look at this trade.  It is TSRO which states 90% probability of going bearish with an average 15% with 23% of the price action occurring this month.

In analyzing the charts, the charts were bearish.    So we look at the seasonality as a catalyst for something to happen and looked for a bearish setup.   We got a bearish pull back that yielded over 8:1 reward/risk.

 

Here is the latest trade.   We found it in the seasonal scanner.  IT is JNPR.  It says on November 15, it has a high probability of going up for 30 days.

 

 

Here is the 60m chart.   We got the green shaded area with the black crosses.    It is struggling but we have time and statistics on our side.   If we lose, who cares!  It is low risk.   All you need is one winning trade with 3:1 or higher to take care of this loss or more.

 

Check out the software for free!   What you have to lose!

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

US Stock November Monthly iMTF™ Market Update

Posted on November 11th, 2017 by

US Stock November Monthly iMTF™ Market Update.  The US Stock markets are continuing to go higher and higher month to month.   Normally, after Labor Day, the markets go higher and this year it did the same registering new high’s in some sectors.

Since the markets are going higher month to month, we are going to focus on the daily time frame to find the major support/resistances.

All the charts are provided by eSignal.

We are first going to look at the daily chart for the $NQ Nasdaq futures.  The reason is that $Nasdaq has been leading the markets higher since beginning of the year.    As a result, we will see if this is still the case.

Here is the daily chart from last newsletter.  Price was consolidating between 5841 and 6011.

Here is the current daily chart:   Price broke the major resistance, retested it as a support and continued higher.   It is in short term over extension now.  It is making new high so there is no history for where it will go.  6274 is the minor support.

 

Below is the daily chart for the $Dow futures $YM.   It is making new high too.  Below is the chart from last newsletter.

Here is the current daily chart.  It has a support at 23263 and a resistance at 23411.  By having a multiple time resistance, this is showing some signs of weakness compared to the other markets.

Below is the $ES E-Mini Sp500 futures.   Like all other markets, it is making new higher.   Here is the daily chart from last month.

Here is the current chart:  It has a support at 2577.95

Below is the $TF Russell Futures chart.  This market has NOT been making new high’s   Here is the daily chart from last month.

Here is the current chart.  This is the weakest of all markets.   It has a major resistance at 1500.46 with minor support at 1455.26 and major support at 1433.59.

 

In conclusion, the Dow is the strongest of all markets with the Russell the weakest.   Remember, we are analyzing the daily time frame since all the markets are all time high’s.   By doing this, it is a short term view.      With the short term view, the markets can rotate who is stronger each month.

Here is the video recording: https://youtu.be/iZqxsGgpy_4

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

$JPM vs $COF $Pairs Trade

Posted on November 11th, 2017 by

$JPM JP Morgan vs $COF Capital One $Pairs Trade.  One of the hidden strategies most people don’t talk about is “pairs trading”.   Some people talk about it but still the concept is not done right.   I learned this powerful strategy in the institutional world.

What is pairs trading?   Pairs trading is a hedge based strategy.    The goal is to trade one instrument and hedge with another instrument.    For example, if you like to trade Apple stock, you buy that instrument.   To hedge it, you should sell their major competitor.    As long as you limit your risk and make sure you get a 3:1 ratio, you will make money.   This strategy is executed every quarter so it starts to create a “residual” income every quarter.

The key is to make sure at least one of the instruments move in your direction.  To do this, we use technical analysis to determine the following:

  • Which/When instrument to buy
  • Which/When instrument to sell

This month, we are looking at $JPM vs $COF.

Last month, we setup for a Bullish Long term Pull back trade on $CAR vs $HTZ.   The monthly chart is very bullish and has been going through minor pull back.

As a result, we are looking for a pull back on a lower time frame.    The only timeframe we can see a possible trade is 240m.    It is an aggressive trade since we are trading the bearish pull back on the 240m.

 

 

 

Here are the November seasonal patterns for both instruments provided www.alerttrades.com

 

 

Update $C vs $JPM:

Below is the daily time frame.  Below is the chart setup from last newsletter.

Here is the current chart.  The trade was exited when black over extended dots appeared.   We did not get to the 3:1 reward but we got 2:1.

Update $EEM vs $SPY:

Below is the current pairs trade chart for $EEM vs $SPY on the weekly time frame.   Below is the chart from last newsletter.

Here the current chart.   The trade was exited when black multiple time frame crosses developed above price to act as a major resistance.

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

$NIFTY $SENSEX November Monthly iMTF™ Market Update

Posted on November 11th, 2017 by

$NIFTY $SENSEX November Monthly iMTF™ Market Update. The Indian stock market continues to make new high’s.  In November, we made another high too.

Note:  All charts are provided by TradingView for this article

Below is the monthly chart.

Since Feb 2004, the India stock market has been in a long term bullish trend.   There was a medium pullback in 2016 but the market has yet to experience a major pull back.

The market continues to move higher slowly approaching the next major resistance of 10527.78 breaking the last resistance of 10255.00   Here is the chart from the last update.   It was approaching the resistance of 10255.00.

Here is the currently monthly chart.   It shows the market approaching the 168% $Fibonacci retracement slowly.

 

Below is the weekly chart.  The weekly is strong and shows no signs of weakness at all right now.

Below is the daily chart.   It show some sign of weakness with a multiple time frame resistance at 10388.62 with a major support at 10255.11.   We will be monitoring this timeframe to see what is going to happen in the Indian stock market for the next couple of weeks.

 

Trade Opportunities

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bullish.   The list has gotten bigger.

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bearish.  The list is going smaller

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

$China Stock market continues to go higher silently

Posted on November 11th, 2017 by

$China Stock market continues to go higher silently

Weekly is the weekly chart provided by eSignal.    June 2015, the China peaked at 5410.   Afterwards, the market went down drastically all the way to  Jan 2016 where it bottomed at 2768.    That was a drastic move down in a short amount of time.

 

After it bottomed, the market has slowly been moving up.

Last month, we talked about a bullish setup trade at 3515 going to the resistance of 3773.00.   Here is the chart from the last article.

The breakout triggered now and it meets our trading plan requirements with money management and technical analysis.    Since this is a weekly chart, this will be a long term positionl

I zoomed out to show $Ichimoku and $Elliott Wave.    We could also put $Fibonacci too but the chart would look cluttered.   The value of 3773 which is our target on the trade is the 38.2% Fib retracement for the Fib traders.

At this point, the resistance that was broke at 3515 is holding nicely.    It was test once and held and now the market is slowly proceeding to the next resistance level of 3773.00.   Here is the daily chart:

Once we reach the next resistance, we will evaluate to determine to get out or going into “preserve mode”.   Preserve mode is where we take 50-75% positions off and tighten our stop.  It is our money management to make sure we do not go “round trip”.

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

 

$ASX200 Australia Market October Monthly iMTF™ Market Update

Posted on October 1st, 2017 by

$ASX200 Australia Market October Monthly iMTF™ Market Update October Monthly iMTF™ Market Update.

The Australia Market started a bullish trend November 2016.    Recently, it has been going through a major pull back.  The pull back resistance is 5767.50 with a major support of 5503.20.

The problem with the major pull back is that is a consolidation pattern.  It is not “sharp”.   This means it is ugly” with no good reward/risk trades on lower time frames.

Below is the weekly chart provided by eSignal.

 

 

Below is the

Trade Opportunities

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bullish.   The list has gotten bigger.

Here is a list of India stocks that are completely bearish.  The list is going smaller

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/

Biggest Obstacle in Trading. Do you know it? How do you deal with it?

Posted on October 1st, 2017 by

 

Biggest Obstacle in Trading. Do you know it? How do you deal with it?  What is it you ask?   It is YOU!

One the biggest question i get from most retail trader is what did it take for me to “jump” from the Telecomm Industry to the Financial Industry.    Most people think it was the technical system or something to do with the Ichimoku Indicator.

Believe it or not, it has nothing to do with technical analysis at all.    In fact, my engineering side was the problem.   It hindered me from seeing the truth.   It was my “blinder”

The biggest obstacle in trading is YOU!    When you trade, you trading against the chart.   It has no emotions, can not be controlled, does not yell at you, does not talk to you….nothing!     When this occurs, you are left with just you.

No other business is this way at all.    Trading is pure psychology.   All your fears and weakness come to the “front” when you trade.

This is a major problem for traders.   This is why institutions are moving towards computers instead of human traders.   There is no more faith in the human mind anymore!   This is one reason why 98% or retail traders fail!

So how do you handle it?

Most people think they can change themselves.   Maybe, they can but it will not happen overnight.

So what is the solution?   The only thing you can do is setup your environment to succeed.  An environment that will not highlight your weakness or fears.     Preparation is the key!

When I trade, I prepare for 1 hour before I even start.    This preparation helps me with my weaknesses so they do not get highlighted within the first 2 hours of trading.

Notice, I said 2 hours.  Everything has a time limit.     Therefore, after 2 hours, I have to take a break and prepare again.   This is a habit now I have created which now allows for consistent profits.

 

Believe it or not, the biggest obstacle in life is also YOU, it is not just trading!   Everything you do in your normal life affects trading too.     I always tell my students, once you conquer trading, your whole life will be improved.   This is the only business where you exercise your brain muscle.   Every day is a different day and it is a challenge to deal with the charts and yourself.

Remember, trading is about probabilities.   You will lose!  The question is will your winners take care of your losers to make a profit.    With this in mind, the only thing left is YOU!  Can you execute your trading plan and trade the probabilities.

 

If you would like to learn how to trade like an institutional trader or learn more about our multi-timeframe email alerts, go to www.ichimokutrade.com or email us at info@eiicapital.com

For educational purposes only. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Forex, Futures, Equity and Options Trading has large potential rewards, but also has large potential risk and may not be suitable for everyone. View our full risk disclosure: https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/disclaimer/